2025 Q1 Outlooks

Julian Menges
Casterbridge Wealth
Casterbridge
Plans announced by both US President-elect Trump and Chancellor Reeves should see stronger growth, but also higher inflation. Base rates will not be cut as quickly and sharply as hoped, and higher bond yields are likely longer term driven by Trump's expected tariffs, soaring debt levels and rising interest payments.
We have recently rebalanced portfolios by adding to US equities (in particular mid-small cap funds which should be the biggest beneficiaries Trump's election) and continuing our long-term reduction in UK equities (to improve portfolio diversification and take advantage of opportunities we are finding).
Risks remain in numerous leading economies, and valuations stretched in certain sectors such as Big Tech / AI, and so we are waiting for better entry points before moving overweight.


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