Darren Ripton

With growth remaining more resilient in the face of higher rates than many imagined, falling inflation coupled with a remarkably robust jobs market, particularly in the US, we still see the chances of a "soft landing" as the most probable scenario for the global economy, although with some bumps along the way. However, with Donald Trump re-entering the White House, we could see inflation becoming more persistent during the coming months. Despite this we still see central banks maintaining their rate cutting trajectories throughout 2025, although this maybe at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Due to the likely reduced pace of interest rate cuts, we have reduced duration by coming to the front of the curve within our government bond overweight. Within equities we have maintained an underweight position in European equities, where the growth outlook has remained challenged, but have remained overweight within our Global infrastructure allocation as this asset class continues to look attractive.

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