2025 Q1 Outlooks

Alex Brandreth
Luna Investment Management
Luna
It was a red sweep with the Republicans taking the Presidency, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. This means they have control for at least two years when the mid-term elections will take place. Stock markets bounced on proposed cuts to corporation tax – which could make US companies overnight more profitable when introduced. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 7.1%* and 6.5%* respectively in sterling terms during the month.
The proposed introduction of tariffs will lead to a re-focusing on US-produced goods and potentially could have a positive impact on the US economy. However, this is an incredibly complicated situation and, as we saw in 2019, could lead to an all-out trade war, which is bad for the global economy.
Bond markets initially sold off after the Trump announcement because of the concern of greater debt levels, but they eventually calmed, and bond markets delivered strong returns during the month. This was because of sensible deficit targets and a raft of weaker-than-expected economic data across the globe, which led to the view that interest rates need to come down quicker than expected.


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