Jasper Thornton-Boelman

We've kept our asset allocation marginally overweight to risk, under a base case expectation that a meaningful recession is avoided. Bond yields appear range bound for now, struggling with the challenges of forecasting inflation.

The potential broadening out of the US market under a Trump-led, pro-business regime is set to be an important theme for 2025. Alongside this – but very much linked to the US and the potential for higher tariffs – is the level of support China is going to provide its economy. Recent talk has felt more robust and targeted, with references to both Fiscal and Monetary policy. However, nothing said or done yet has proved to be the catalyst for a sustained market recovery.